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WILL ROCKET LAB'S NEUTRON LIFT OFF ON ITS INAUGURAL FLIGHT BEFORE DECEMBER 31, 2026?5%— 0.0AI GAP 22WILL BLUE ORIGIN'S NEW GLENN LIFT OFF AGAIN BEFORE DECEMBER 31, 2026?49%— 0.0AI GAP 24WILL VAST'S HAVEN-1 LAUNCH BEFORE JUNE 30, 2027?30%— 0.0AI GAP 11WILL ARTEMIS III COMPLETE DOCKINGS WITH BOTH BLUE ORIGIN AND SPACEX HLS TEST ARTICLES BEFORE DECEMBER 31, 2027?18%— 0.0AI GAP 42WILL ROCKET LAB'S NEUTRON SUCCESSFULLY REACH ORBIT ON ITS INAUGURAL FLIGHT?37%— 0.0AI GAP 24WILL INTUITIVE MACHINES' IM-3 SUCCESSFULLY LAND UPRIGHT ON THE MOON?30%— 0.0AI GAP 24WILL ROCKET LAB'S NEUTRON LIFT OFF ON ITS INAUGURAL FLIGHT BEFORE DECEMBER 31, 2026?5%— 0.0AI GAP 22WILL BLUE ORIGIN'S NEW GLENN LIFT OFF AGAIN BEFORE DECEMBER 31, 2026?49%— 0.0AI GAP 24WILL VAST'S HAVEN-1 LAUNCH BEFORE JUNE 30, 2027?30%— 0.0AI GAP 11WILL ARTEMIS III COMPLETE DOCKINGS WITH BOTH BLUE ORIGIN AND SPACEX HLS TEST ARTICLES BEFORE DECEMBER 31, 2027?18%— 0.0AI GAP 42WILL ROCKET LAB'S NEUTRON SUCCESSFULLY REACH ORBIT ON ITS INAUGURAL FLIGHT?37%— 0.0AI GAP 24WILL INTUITIVE MACHINES' IM-3 SUCCESSFULLY LAND UPRIGHT ON THE MOON?30%— 0.0AI GAP 24
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The Heat Shield Problem

Starship has demonstrated increasingly controlled atmospheric reentry, but surviving reentry is not the same as achieving rapid, low-maintenance reuse. This paper examines Starship's heat shield, the flight-test evidence through Flight 13, Shuttle-era lessons, non-TPS bottlenecks and the economics required for aircraft-like operations.

RC-2026-SR-04 · 15 MINREAD →
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18%

Will Artemis III complete dockings with both Blue Origin and SpaceX HLS test articles before December 31, 2027?

Artemis III is the key integration mission between the successful Artemis II crewed flight and NASA's planned return of astronauts to the lunar surface on Artemis IV. Completing dockings with both commercial human landing system providers would demonstrate Orion's new docking capability, validate spacecraft interfaces across two independent lander architectures, and exercise the multi-launch and mission-operations framework required for future crewed lunar missions. Failure to execute both demonstrations in 2027 would provide an important signal about the readiness and schedule risk of NASA's broader lunar architecture.

FC-2026-008
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